Dark Side: “The Proof Is In The Pudding.”

 

The technique of criminal profiling has proliferated over recent decades, despite a remarkable lack of empirically rigorous evidence concerning its accuracy. Notwithstanding the absence of evidence, the very circumstance of the continued use of profiles by police investigators is often regarded as proof of their accuracy. This phenomenon is essentially informed by an “operational utilitarian argument.” Namely, anecdotal evaluations of criminal profiles sponsor their continued use. A series of empirical studies that systematically test the reliability of such anecdotal evaluations concerning the perceived accuracy of criminal profiles. The results of these studies demonstrate the unreliability of anecdotal evaluations and highlight the weakness of such an argument. On an intuitive level, fictional portrayals of criminal profiling may serve to fuel the impression of the merit and accuracy of the practice in assisting investigators. The second factor relates to the general environment in which criminal profiles are frequently used:

Þ   - criminal investigations, 

Þ   - conducted by law enforcement 

Þ   - agencies that typically

Þ   - feature comparatively insular authoritarian cultures

 

The technique of criminal profiling may not be exposed to the same degree of independent critical scrutiny that is characteristic of other scientifically constituted disciplines that feature considerable transparency andevaluation of internally adopted practices. We may restore to a circumstantial argument at times put forward by expert profilers when seeking to justify their practices. This argument is described by the author as the operational utilitarian argument, and is somewhat circular in what it posits. If criminal profiles were not regarded as being useful, investigators such as police would simply not continue to use them. Accordingly, because police officers continue to use the services of expert profilers this circumstance serves as evidence attesting to the presumed merit and accuracy of the criminal profiles. In essence, the tenet underpinning the operational utilitarian argument is simply a variation of the old English proverb “the proof is in the pudding.” That is, the accuracy of criminal profiles can be inferred by the circumstance of their continued use. Positive results, it seems, must be occurring because police officers continue to use criminal profiles to aid their investigations, and therefore the profiles must be accurate. Despite the intuitive logic of such an argument, it has previously escaped empirical testing. Additionally, such an argument does not represent a direct and objective measure of the accuracy of a criminal profile. Instead, it is at best an indirect and inferred measure based on the perceived accuracy of the criminal profiles by users of them. The police officers perceive criminal profiles to be useful in the course of their investigations and consequently continue to use them. This circumstance is then taken as equating with evidence of the accuracy of a criminal profile. One central premise underpinning the operational utilitarian argument is that the perceptions of police officers regarding the accuracy of a criminal profile are reliable. However, should these anecdotal evaluations be found to be unreliable in some respect, such as, for example, being subject to some extraneous influence or even bias, then the validity of the operational utilitarian argument would be seriously undermined. This question surrounding the reliability of anecdotal evaluations of criminal profiles is extremely pertinent when one considers the extensive history of psychological research that has consistently highlighted the unreliability of human perceptions in a wide variety of contexts.  The underlying premise of the operational utilitarian argument is its reliance on anecdotal evaluations of criminal profiles. Accordingly, to test the validity of this argument one needs to examine the reliability of police officers’ perceptions of a criminal profile. Consequently, a study was devised whereby a sample of police officers were presented with a criminal profile and asked to evaluate it on a quantifiable scale that could then be subjected to critical analysis. 

 

The police officers may have, for example, objectively assessed the features of a criminal profile associated with its coherence, specity, or individuation. However, the accuracy of the criminal profile may have been considered something directly reflective of a colleague’s abilities. Consequently, this feature may have been judged more favorably when labeled as authored by a perceived colleague; thus the bias in evaluating the accuracy of the criminal profile. It needs to be questioned to what extent, such depictions may have subconsciously influenced the levels of belief that police officers and others in the community may have about profiling and the extent to which such impressions influence their evaluations concerning the accuracy of a criminal profile. It could be that the operational utilitarian argument may, in fact, be little more than the manifestation of a vicious illusionary cycle. 

 

Arguably, the most fundamental question underpinning criminal profiling is whether the technique actually works, or more specifically, whether the predictions of profilers in describing the characteristics of an unknown offender are accurate. Despite the seemingly obvious nature of this question, rigorous empirical data to answer it has been in short supply. This observation, however, should not be interpreted as implying that the development of criminal profiling has occurred within a total vacuum. On the contrary, much material in the form of anecdotal accounts attesting to the merits of criminal profiles has been promulgated in support of their accuracy. Another source of material that is sometimes offered as evidence for the validity of profiling are user satisfaction surveys. Although these surveys are informative in reflecting the satisfaction investigators derive from the use of a criminal profile, it is important to appreciate that satisfaction with a service does not necessarily equate with its validity. It is perhaps difficult to appreciate, but independent, empirically based, scientifically vetted evidence to test the accuracy of profilers and thus criminal profiling has, until quite recently, been surprisingly scarce.

 

To sum up, the researchers undertook a number of small experiments that were designed to examine differing aspects surrounding the practice of constructing a criminal profile, the most pertinent being an experiment that involved the construction of criminal profiles for two actual crimes. Possibly the most important feature to this experiment was that it empirically, and more significantly, objectively scored the profiles and thereby measured the accuracy of the predictions contained in them. 

 

Acknowledgements:

www.aived.nl    AIVD ©

Algemene Bestuursdienst – @Erik Akerboom ©

www.politie.nl  Politiekorpschef  @Janny Knol©

www.politie.nl WEB Politie - @Henk van Essen©

 

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