Low Down

  Since the variables and factors that assist the police in establishing the modus operandi are imprecise in nature, it is difficult to develop any of the standard mathematical techniques to profile the offender. However, the new kind of mathematics based upon fuzzy logic appears to be useful in creating templates of offenders. We will develop a mathematical routine that models the modus operandi procedure followed by the police investigators. This fuzzy logic-based mathematical technique can assist in making sense of the evidence provided by the witnesses. As a practical example, we will use the case of motor vehicle theft in which multiple offenses by a single individual are more probable, but the technique could be applied to any type of a offense. We know, and the pattern theory asserts, that despite such individual differences there are set patterns that can be seen. Police detective work is indeed dependent on deciphering patterns determined by habitual actions of offenders. ...

  In everyday conversation we use imprecise and implied terms like “it’s a hot day”, “it’s an early morning meeting”, and “there is only a short time allotted to each speaker.” Ordinarily, we understand intuitively the implied meanings of these terms even though each is individual-specific. Thus, for some people, early morning implies a time period before 9:30 a.m., while for others it may be 6.00 a.m. Yet we can communicate easily in such fuzzy terms that the best computer is unable to replicate. There are several reasons for this difference, but a significant characteristic is the capability of human beings to communicate in fuzzy terms. “The difference between human brain and the computers lies in the ability of the former to think and reason in imprecise, non-quantitative terms.” It is this proficiency that makes it possible for humans to decipher different scripts and handwriting, comprehend a variety of sounds, interpretmultiple meaning responses, and focus on information tha...

  Law enforcement agencies should not be content with knowing the statistical probability of crimes happening based on where and when these crimes have previously occurred. Statistics only allow management to set goals for crime prevention in general localities without specific targets. “Revictimization” (repeat crime) studies illuminate the “hot spots” in the crime map but do not explain why people, places, and things are being revictimized. True crime pattern analysis starts from the assumption that law enforcement must target specific perpetrators if it is to break the cycle of revictimization. Through analysis of reports, the crime intelligence analyst creates a profile of each known offender, the offender’s MOs (style of entry, day of the week, time of day, choice of goods to be burglarized, fencing outlets), his or her associates, and the associates’ MOs. For example, combining the mapping of burglary incidents with a knowledge of suspects’ activities builds up a more meaning...