Fidelity and Aptness

A basic explanation of the statistical tool of MDS and how it is used to analyze and display patterns inherent to crime behaviors. This was followed by an explanation of the relationships between crime behaviors and offender characteristics and how these relationships are displayed by the use of large arrows. The integration of these two types of analysis, that is, the superimposition of the arrows on top of the MDS diagram, form the basis of a CAP model. The objective of the remainder of this chapter will be to explain in generic terms how these models can be systematically interpreted and thus used as a guide for the development of a criminal profile. the general design of the three CAP models should be clearly understood that each model consists of four separate diagrams. The basis to all four diagrams in each of the CAP models is the MDS analysis of crime behaviors for the studied offense modality (i.e., sexual murder, serial rape, or serial arson). What differs across the four diagrams are the superimposed arrows (or lines in the case of the serial arson model) that depict the various offender characteristics and crime features, which have been linked to the patterns of crime behaviors depicted in the MDS diagram. Four separate diagrams are used simply for clarity in displaying the position of the arrows. The first diagram in each of the three CAP models always presents a depiction of the MDS analysis of crime behaviors without any arrows. The purpose of this first diagram in each of the models is to provide a clear depiction of the patterns inherent to the analyzed crime behaviors. The subsequent three diagrams in each CAP model present exactly the same MDS diagram with differing arrows at differing positions depicting related victim characteristics, offender characteristics, or interaction characteristics. In principle, therefore, a CAP model could also be represented by a single MDS diagram that features all of the differing arrows (or lines) superimposed simultaneously on top of the one diagram. However, the clarity of such a diagram in discerning the proximity and therefore relationships between the differing variables would be compromised. Consequently, the use of the CAP models involves a cumulative process involving all four diagrams. That is, the prediction of offender characteristics based on observed crime behaviours is enhanced when the relationships inferred from all four of the diagrams are integrated and used in combination with each other. To use any less than all of the diagrams effectively equates to disregarding potential information concerning an offender that may have been derived from another diagram. A final feature of the CAP models is their segmentation and appearance.

The significance of these variously shaped icons and segmentations in the diagrams are more relevant to the interpretation of the models with commonly occurring behavioral clusters and their relevance with previous research concerning offender typologies. Consequently, for the purpose of understanding the basic principles for interpreting a CAP model for operational use such borders and differently shaped icons can be overlooked. At this juncture it is more important to appreciate the relative positions of the icons (irrespective of their shape) relative to each other and the superimposed arrows within the MDS diagrams. At its most fundamental level the concept of criminal profiling is a form of retro-classification. Through the study of crime behaviors and related offender characteristics of past cases of sexual murder, for example, some insight can be gained about the perpetrator of a current case of sexual murder based on the similarities the current case may have with those studied previously. Because the CAP models are based on studies of samples of sexual murder, serial rape, and serial arson crimes, they provide a mechanism for identifying behavioral patterns apparent in each of these respective crime modalities. The process of constructing a criminal profile therefore principally involves identifying the behavioral variables evident in a crime under examination and then matching such variables with those identified in the appropriate CAP model. Although this may initially appear to be a somewhat mechanical procedure, some skill is required in discerning behavioral subtleties and gauging the probability of the related characteristics based on the particular circumstances of the case under consideration. The very first step will always involve a careful evaluation of the behaviors evident in the crime in question. The present hypothetical example will deal with the investigation of a murdered woman. The victim’s clothing is observed to be torn/ripped and there is evidence of sexual assault. The autopsy indicates that the victim died as a result of stab wounds. It is also evident that one of the victim’s nipples has been bitten off. Further forensic examination of the corpse indicates that the victim had been gagged and tortured.

The fact that other crime behaviour icons not actually observed in the crime under examination may also be encompassed in this region is unimportant. Second, it should be understood that the point of intersection formed from the two axis lines do not necessarily bisect the MDS diagram at a perfectly central location. It needs to be emphasized that the material canvassed thus far throughout this chapter is specifically designed to facilitate a fundamental understanding of the principles for interpreting CAP models when seeking to formulate a criminal profile. It is therefore important to thoroughly understand these basic procedures, as the advanced principles articulated herein essentially represent more sophisticated elaborations of these basic principles.

Thus far, the principles for interpreting the offender and crime characteristics listed beside the various arrows have been explained in terms of being either present or absent, dependent on the position of the arrowhead or tail. This procedure represents a simplified way of understanding the functional properties behind these arrows. However, their interpretation is better conceptualized as two opposing polarities along a continuum. Consequently, the arrowhead, or positive polarity, of an arrow represents a high or affirmative probability for the listed characteristics, whereas the tail, or negative polarity, of an arrow represents a low probability for the same characteristic(s). By this conceptualization of the arrows as continuums, the strength and nature of the relationships between the characteristics listed beside each arrow and the individual crime behaviors in the MDS diagrams can be better interpreted.

Another important aspect surrounding the interpretation of the arrows relates to some of the characteristics assigned to the arrows. For ease of explanation, the characteristics referred to thus far have dealt with variables that can be easily defined as either present or absent, such as, for example, whether or not the offender possesses a vehicle. Some of the offender characteristics listed adjacent to the arrows are not amenable to such interpretation. One example of this is an offender’s likely age. Consequently, the significance of these variables necessitates their interpretation along a weighted scale. Thus, using the example of an offender’s possible age, the positive arrowhead denotes an offender who is likely to be older, whereas the negative tail of the arrow denotes an offender who is likely to be younger.

Another nuance to the interpretation of the CAP models relates to the identification of relevant crime behavior icons and the concomitant arrows. The basic procedure articulated thus far involves identifying the two outlying behaviors to form borders from which a conceptual wedge can be identified within the MDS diagram. All arrows within this designated wedge region can then be used for the prediction of characteristics. Although this is a method by which the CAP models can be interpreted, it does resort, in part, to a somewhat categorical process, using affixed borders to form the conceptual wedge region in the MDS diagrams. A more sophisticated method for interpretation involves assessing the proximity of each of the relevant crime behavior icons with any neighboring arrows. In many circumstances, this technique will result in a similar interpretation of the CAP models akin to the basic procedure because of the overall structure of the crime behavior icons displayed in the MDS diagrams. The advantage of this method of interpretation, however, comes from the consideration of arrows that typically fall outside the conceptual wedge region but nonetheless share a close proximity with one of the crime behavior icons. An example of this is when a crime behavior delineates the border of the wedge region.

One final nuance to the interpretation of the CAP models involves specific consideration of the overall positions the crime behavior icons occupy in the MDS diagrams. As explained in the initial section of this chapter, the MDS diagrams represent an analysis of crime behaviors in each of the respective crime modalities. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the relationships between these variables illustrated by their proximity to one another. The position of this behavior is far more likely to be a discriminatory feature of the particular offender being profiled. Similarly, the position of this icon relative to the arrow suggests the presence of a prominent positive relationship between this crime behavior and the corresponding listed offender characteristics. Accordingly, when constructing a criminal profile, predictions based on the relationship between these variables should be given greater emphasis over that derived from the sex/victim icon.

By focusing on these CAP concepts it is hoped that a user-friendly understanding of the models can be achieved to guide in the evaluation of a given crime for the purpose of developing a criminal profile. It should be apparent that the research and procedures of CAP are quite different from other approaches to criminal profiling in that CAP offers structured models that serve as mechanisms for the profiling of violent crimes.

Acknowledgements:

The Police Department; 

www.politie.nl and a Chief Inspector – Mr. Erik Akerboom    ©

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